Is Pakistan on the Brink of a Revolution?

Introduction

Pakistan has witnessed tremendous political turmoil in recent years following the 2022 vote of no-confidence that led to the removal of Prime Minister Imran Khan, widely seen as the “people’s favorite.” Khan blamed his removal on a Washington military establishment plot. The crisis has fueled disagreements over the weaknesses of democracy and fueled calls for a revolution to entrench civilian rule in Pakistan.

Background

Imran Khan’s removal from office in 2022 caused serious political turmoil in Pakistan. His Haqeeqi Azadi (True Freedom) movement against the intervention of the military in politics rallied millions onto the streets in a demonstration of his popularity among the masses. The campaign was intense despite Khan’s arrest, fueling increasing public unrest. It reached a boiling point in the May 9 incident, where the protesters stormed the military bases, leading to intervention and the record prosecution of citizens in military tribunals, hence igniting countrywide divisions.

The 2024 general elections were viewed as a make-or-break test for democracy. But PTI was subjected to systematic repression—its symbol pulled, leaders imprisoned, and its campaign gagged. PTI-affiliated independent candidates were well ahead on election day, but alleged vote rigging overnight swung results in favor of a PML-N and PPP alliance.

This seeming manipulation of the election undermined public confidence, leaving citizens disillusioned and democracy in crisis, further solidifying political instability and polarization.

Democracy and Revolution

Democracy and revolutions are typically opposites, yet the case is more complex. Although there do exist revolutions with non-democratic objectives, some are triggered by calls for popular involvement. Democratic revolutions, as opposed to military coups involving the simple change of elites for elites, acquire legitimacy from popular involvement. Raymond Aron’s philosophy emphasizes that true political freedom involves active citizen participation in governance. This is in line with the French Constitution of 1793, which established the idea that the people are the holders of power, right to participate, and the right to rebel if the government oversteps what the citizens are allowed.

Democratic participation is fundamental to being a citizen. It is through free elections, equal opportunities in holding public offices, and seeing that the government is held to account. International law supports democratic participation through means like the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Article 21) and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (Article 25). These laws mandate countries to use democratic governments. The American Revolution illustrates that through a revolution, democracy may ensue. It was established by Thomas Jefferson’s Declaration of Independence, in which it was asserted that governments trace their powers back to the will of the people and had impacts on current democratic principles.

Conversely, Pakistan has witnessed four major revolutions in its history, and all of them were non-democratic. All of them claimed to revive democracy but resulted in long spells of dictatorship, entrenching the military in politics. That legacy continues to impede democratic development. The current political situation in Pakistan is akin to a movement of revolution, with large numbers of protesters against the current ruling government.

On 24 November 2024, Imran Khan made a “final call” for the protests against rigging in the elections, unjustified detentions, and the 26th Amendment, where the government got stronger and more undemocratic. The freedom to peacefully assemble has been granted under Article 17, but the government termed the protests illegal and retaliated through blockades, mass detentions, and violent action with pellet guns, tear gas, and lethal weapons. The protesters also fought back, resulting in deaths on both sides.

These demonstrations are echoes of earlier self-determination movements, like India’s independence. Whereas British colonial rule in India early on attempted to keep control through gradual reforms, persistent civil disobedience and mass protest ultimately compelled colonial withdrawal. Like the repression by Pakistan of political rights, these are international and constitutional violations because they violate both the ICCPR and UDHR. By withholding the right of citizens to hold free elections and choose their rulers, the new government subverts democracy, creating political insecurity and popular resentment.

Conclusion

The democratic ethos is intended to reduce human suffering on physical, ethical, and social planes. It institutionalizes the dignity of life and physical well-being, protects the freedom of thoughts, expression, and imagination, and establishes a homogeneous societal structure. However, in Pakistan, these basic tenets have been undermined time and again in recent years, and the country has come to be viewed by many as being more and more ruled by what they call a fascist regime.

The protests are a symptom of a severe systemic failure: the establishment of an illegitimate government without the confidence of its people and simultaneously breaking both national and international law. This is a question of the legitimacy of the government when the political right to participate is removed. The protests, in this instance, are more than just discontent; they are a symbol of a greater struggle to restore democratic ideals and thus a symbol of a new revolutionary era.

Moreover, fundamental constitutional rights, such as freedom of speech, have been heavily restricted. Media outlets are censored, and platforms like X (formerly Twitter) have been banned due to fears of anti-government and anti-establishment content. Firewalls and surveillance mechanisms monitor online activity, while frequent internet shutdowns disrupt daily life and exacerbate Pakistan’s already struggling economy, damaging businesses and livelihoods.

The erosion of legal safeguards goes beyond freedom of expression. The right to a fair trial is violated since civilians are brought to trial in military courts, especially after the May 9 incident, when protesters attacked the Lahore Corps commander’s residence. Bringing civilians to trial in military courts—comprising personnel who are by nature prejudiced—violates international legal standards as well as Pakistan’s constitutional safeguards. Likewise, Article 9, guaranteeing the protection of security of life and liberty, has been grossly violated. Protesters have been fired at on “open fire” orders, and dozens of others, including PTI leaders and Imran Khan himself, have been kidnapped or arrested in disobedience of the courts’ orders to release them on bail.

The courts, hitherto the defense against authoritarian executive rule, have been targeted too. The 26th Constitutional Amendment, which for many people seemed to be an instrument meant to secure judicial assent to the current regime, has weakened public confidence in the courts. The rule of law has seemingly given way to the rule of authority, and Pakistan now has an image of a state in which power takes the lead over morality.

The decay of democratic values has driven the Pakistani people to a high level of restiveness. Denied their rights and exposed to authoritarianism, the masses are increasingly skeptical of institutional reform. The level of their dissatisfaction has reached the level where individuals are willing to take charge of revolutionary changes, which indicates a shift towards revolutionary forces.

If the government continues to overlook the people’s demands and put down dissent, Pakistan could be heading towards a democratic revolution. This would be more than just a rejection of authoritarian rule; it would be a powerful confirmation of the citizens’ determination to restore their constitutional rights and reinvigorate democracy. The stakes in the situation are profoundly high. The government has either to listen to and act on the people’s will or invite an intensification of frustration leading to mass upheaval, hence altering the nation’s political climate in unforeseeable ways.

https://www.paradigmshift.com.pk/revolution-in-pakistan/